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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."